Printable View
Bought SQQQ @ 15.80
Market bây giờ là yo yo market. Đúng hơn là bipolar, hôm qua depressive, hôm nay manic. Dow Jones lên 746 points không make sense. Vì employment number quá tốt, sẽ làm Federal Reserve dễ tăng lãi xuất nữa. Powell nói hôm nay có vẻ dovish nhưng quyết định sẽ vẫn chỉ theo data. Nhiều phần tháng 3 vẫn tăng rate thêm 0.25% nữa!!!
Thứ hai market chắc sẽ xuống lại !!!
https://i.ibb.co/wz3Y6LM/2019-01-03-Market-Watch.png
01-03-2019
https://i.ibb.co/v1cM2pm/2019-01-04-Market-Closed.png
01-04-2019
https://i.ibb.co/PckbNHk/2019-01-07-Market-Closed.png
01-07-2019
https://i.ibb.co/zRJsJXD/2019-01-08-MC.png
01-08-2019
https://i.ibb.co/0XPCW39/2019-01-09-MC.png
01-09-2019
https://i.ibb.co/Bt846y2/2019-01-10-MC.png
01-10-2019
https://i.ibb.co/rxMQfg7/2019-01-11-MC.png
01-11-2019
Sold SQQQ @ $15.78. Took a small negative here!
Cảm giác bốc bậy dễ phỏng tay .... Tiếp tục án binh bất động.
Bought back SQQQ @ $15.05. Chiều hướng này, có thể còn xuống nữa vì trade is going on, but E.R. also coming. Ngâm tôm vài bữa xem sao. Giá rẻ mạt rồi.
Opinion: Investors, prepare for a fake-out rally in the stock market
By AVI GILBURT
Ride the market higher, but be prepared for a larger drop in the months ahead
The more people I speak with, the more I find out how surprised most investors were by the S&P 500 Index’s drop down to around 2,300 points at the end of last month.
Yet, those who read our analysis were prepared. As I have said, I know of no other analysis methodology that provides better context to understanding the stock market than Elliott Wave analysis. And the market has made it clear to us that we are in a larger-degree 4th wave, which epitomizes the term “whipsaw.” So none of this action was much of a surprise to us. And it is not yet over.
What Elliott Wave analysis also tells us is that once the a-wave of wave 4 has completed, we should see a b-wave rally to make most market participants believe this correction is over. But, as Robert Prechter noted in “Elliott Wave Principle”:
“B-waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators’ paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks and are often unconfirmed by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, ‘There is something wrong with this market,’ chances are it’s a B wave.”
https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedi...3-ac162d7bc1f7
Yet, based on my experience, that does not mean a b-wave cannot even strike a higher all-time high. As we began this 4th wave months ago, I wrote about the b-wave potential back in October in order to begin preparing you well before we had to deal with it:
“Moreover, when the larger degree impulsive structure of the market comes short of its bullish target, we often see the b-wave of the ensuing correction provide us with an expanded corrective structure, wherein it stretches to a higher high to strike the target missed by the impulsive bullish move.”
In our case, our ideal higher target for the S&P 500 SPX, +1.29% began at around 3,011 points, and we came about 70 points shy of that when the market topped. That means I have to at least consider the potential that the coming b-wave can rally that high.
Many are still questioning whether the a-wave of the larger-degree wave 4 has bottomed, and rightfully so since we did not see the full pattern or technical indications normally seen at the bottom of the (c) wave of the a-wave. Yet, with this move through 2,520 points, I have to maintain a primary count that it has completed, despite it not providing the ideal structure or technical setup that we see most of the time. While it is still possible that the market provides us with that lower low, I have to view that as my alternative at this point in time, with my primary count now viewing us as having started the b-wave rally to 2,800-plus points.
If my assessment that the a-wave has completed is correct, then we should now be in the c-wave of the (a) wave of the larger b-wave rally. That means that the market should stretch up to at least the 2,600 region for this c-wave of the (a) wave. Should we come up short, then it would suggest that there is still a door open to a lower low, despite my now viewing that as the lower probability. But since I recognize that this is a larger-degree 4th wave, I don’t take anything for granted in this market.
Should we complete that rally to at least the 2,600 region (a=c) in the coming week, then I am going to expect a (b) wave retracement to ensue in February, even if the market does extend further than the minimal target for this (a) wave. This is all outlined in my 60-minute chart.
The next question many will be asking is: How will we know how high the (c) wave of the b-wave will take us in the coming months? The answer is that will all depend on how large waves 1 and 2 of that (c) wave develop. The larger that structure, the higher it will project. Remember that a 5-wave structure often targets the 2.00 extension of waves 1 and 2. So it will only be after waves 1 and 2 within that (c) wave complete that we can then project whether the market will strike the minimum 2,800 target or if we can stretch as high as 3,011 later this year. But, for now, I have to maintain a rather large target for the b-wave rally, at least until waves 1 and 2 have completed within that (c) wave. Then we can narrow that target down.
I want to conclude this week’s update with what sets us apart from the great majority of the market, and it can be summed up rather well by a quote from Albert Einstein:
“Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.”
When the market rallied in 2016 and 2017 despite bearish factors, we remained staunchly bullish. However, when the market broke 2,880, that was a big warning to us, despite many at the time highlighting how the fundamentals of the U.S. economy looked so good. It was for this reason many others did not see the drop to the 2,300 region coming as we did.
The reason I am bringing this up is that we will need to move to a point in sentiment where investors will view it as an impossibility that the market can rally to 3,200-plus points before that rally can take hold in earnest. While we have seen some record outflows in the market of late, I still think there is potential for it to get worse, especially if the market fulfills its ideal target of the 2,100-2,200 region.
But from a long-term investor’s perspective, keep in mind that the market has given us a 15%-20% sale so far, with some stocks even more than that. With the downside potential being as much as 400 points lower from Friday’s close, the upside potential is at least 700 points higher based on our long-term expectations. So as the market provides opportunity, please consider your longer-term positioning, while ignoring your social environment, as Einstein seems to suggest. At the end of the day, you have to know when it is wise and advisable to follow the herd, and you also have to learn when following the herd at the wrong time will lead you off a cliff.
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room featuring his intraday market analysis (including e-mini S&P 500, metals, oil, dollar and S&P futures), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.
Fake rally!!!
Trade negotiation with China is laughable !!!
Market will go down again when people realize that 25% tarìff is inevitable
Hold on to SQQQ
Hôm qua sáng 8:00 là đi theo dzợ đi Nha sỹ cho đến chiều mới dìa sau đó đi đón thị nhỏ về rồi chở 2 chị nhà tui đi shoppin .
Ằn cơm tối xong bấm bụng mua TQQQ@ 39.70 sau khi chợ đóng cửa .
Dò dé số chưa dậy quí dị. Hổng có ai clam là tui lảnh à nghen.
Sold SQQQ @ 14.90
Chịu thua ! Bỏ của chạy lấy người !! Lỗ chút nhưng không sao !!!
Gỡ lại bằng oil stocks ! Lên quá mạng !! XOM và RDSB xanh lè xanh lẹt coi mát con mắt !!!
It appears Santa decided to come after Christmas this year, and the market has been rallying almost non-stop since then.
It is shaking off news that would have beaten it down last month and suddenly everyone is in good spirits and the despair of December is a distant memory.
Me thinks I will mainly be on the sidelines.
CCG, LD mua USO @10.42